GOOG: After a gap up in the morning, the stock crashed back down below 900 (no doubt to trigger all of the cautious investors’ stop-losses placed there or immediately below). The stock was oversold (according to some on StockTwits, a result of a HFT algorithm), and subsquently re-took the 20sma and later above 905. It closed off its highs, though. I think price action like this is ultimately good, as it forced a lot of weak hands to fold, and still closed higher than yesterday, indicating to me that the uptrend is still intact. All my SMA and PSAR indicators are pointing upwards. Unfortunately, I didn’t follow my entry advice (see previous post or yesterday’s Positions/Watchlist post) about buying on the open yesterday. As it were, I bought incrementally between 10:04 A.M. and 11:35, a few bucks higher than it opened. Today has been a day full of regret, as I could’ve realized substantial profits by 9:35 and repurchased those same options for a fraction of the value within the following hour. Tomorrow, I need to close this position and open a longer-term option if I want to maintain a position in GOOG.
TSLA: In a fashion similar to that of GOOG, TSLA opened up big and meandered its way throughout the day, finishing the day by closing at an all-time high close. It held yesterday’s HOD. The big news is that TSLA is joining the NASDAQ100 by 7/15/13, so I believed that holding onto this position for a few days longer would be best, despite the PSAR turning bearish in the last two hours of trading, which usually means it needs a little breather. I will contemplate making a day trade to try to capitalize on weakness and try to offset some theta loss. It’s been a good week for TSLA already, which isn’t a total surprise (see previous post or yesterday’s Positions/Watchlist post).V: Well, it pulled back to my expected levels (see previous post or yesterday’s Positions/Watchlist post), but I did not initiate a position. I was a little distracted by my day-job this afternoon. I try to only maintain one or two positions as a result of the day-job. Today they both turned against me, so I am unlikely to try to add a third. I like an entry here above the 100sma, with a stop loss shortly below the 100 SMA.
NEE: Well, I was pretty much on target. The stock began to hit major resistance in the $81.65 area (see my NEE charts or yesterday’s Positions/Watchlist post) and pulled back lower. Again, no position unfortunately, as my plan would’ve worked here.SIRI: It also appears that I was correct with SIRI (see my charts), as it gapped above 3.48 and closed at 3.60. No position yet again!
LO: Although it gapped up with the rest, and closed above yesterday’s HOD, it moved much closer to the 20sma. Since it held the 20sma, I would say it warrants a long position with a stop loss slightly below the 20SMA.
CINF: I was wrong about CINF, thinking we’d re-test the 200sma (see my charts) before shooting higher. I think that at some point, interest rate fears may resume and pull this one lower. However, I’m 0/1 so far. No position.
DD: The widespread gap-up on 7/8 and holding those levels today rendered many of my opinions irrelevant, DD included (see my charts). However, the 30m PSAR has gone through a bullish and bearish period, and closed on the bullish side today. No position.
AGNC appears to have been a perfect buying opportunity on Friday. I had thought about this plan (see this page) on Friday but decided to stick with pure options instead. The plan to sell covered calls may have backfired, however.
AAPL: After a big flush of all the weak hands yesterday morning, AAPL appreciated very nicely today (see my weekend post). The SMA’s are lining up, making AAPL poised for even further gains in my opinion. On the 30m below, it was clear that AAPL didn’t want to lose that 200 SMA yesterday, and it really spiked higher today amidst the turmoil I went through in GOOG and TSLA. I am moving AAPL higher in my watch list moving forward, but no current position.
IWV and SPY: Russell 3000 and S&P500 are each performing well. Bullish technicals all around. My Friday read on retailers’ collective overexuberance turns out to have, thus far, been unfounded. However, my Saturday comment about buying the SPY on the Parabolic SAR bullish flip occurring on 7/5/2013′s daily chart proved to be a profitable buy point. Unfortunately, in real time, I definitely missed that indicator being triggered. If I were long now, I’d be moving up my stop loss orders. An IWV-like mutual fund is a core holding in my retirement account, but no position in SPY or equivalents.
Looking at SIRI over the past few years, it would appear that I’ve missed many good long-term entry points. Given the alignment of the SMA’s, the general uptrend over the last few years, the regular re-test of the 20sma, I view SIRI favorably. On the 1D chart, it looks poised to re-test and take $3.60, if it can first take $3.48.